Why Northerners won’t support Atiku, Obi’s presidential bids-Ex-ACF Scribe Sani
Chief Anthony N.Z. Sani, a former Secretary General of the Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF), says the North would rather allow President Bola Tinubu complete a second term in 2027 and wait till 2031 to have one of its own installed as the next president, other than support either Alhaji Atiku Abubakar or Dr. Peter Obi.
According to Sani, this will enable the North to have the presidency for two terms of eight years.
The ex-ACF scribe disclosed this to The Nation during an exclusive interview in Kaduna, stressing that this could probably count against the ambition of former vice president and the 2023 presidential candidate of Labour Party (LP) in the forthcoming 2027 general elections.
“The political dynamics surrounding zoning currently favour President Bola Tinubu,” he said.
Continuing, Sani said Tinubu “has only one term left, and after 2027, power is expected by many to return to the North in 2031. That prospect alone will influence how the North votes.
“Tinubu, being the only southern candidate constitutionally limited to one more term, is likely to get the support of voters who are thinking beyond 2027.
“Southern voters, because of the zoning arrangement and the quest for fairness, would not want the presidency to return to the North just yet.
“They would prefer the presidency remains in the South until 2031 so they can complete their expected eight years before power shifts again.
“Therefore, it is unlikely that the South would vote massively for a Northern candidate in 2027.”
Sani also said most northern voters “would also strategically vote for Tinubu, not only out of loyalty to the late Buhari, but also because it aligns with their long-term interest of producing the next president in 2031.
“Supporting Tinubu in 2027 means the North can present a strong case for power to return to their region after his final term.”
Sani said the influence of the late former President Muhammadu Buhari would also play a role in Tinubu’s bid for a second term, especially in the North because, according to him, “Buhari was able to command the loyalty and support of most northern voters largely because he was widely perceived as an honest, disciplined, transparent, principled and austere leader.”
He added: “Northerners saw him (Buhari) as someone who would never dip his hands into public funds for personal gain. That image gave him an uncommon kind of cult followership, especially among the poor.
“With his demise and the evolving political alignments ahead of 2027, I do not think that his political influence will fade or wane substantially, at least not so soon.
“His legacy is still fresh in the hearts of many, especially in the rural North, and that will continue to shape voting patterns for some time to come.
“With the passing of President Buhari, I believe President Bola Tinubu may still prevail among northern voters for two key reasons.
“First, because the influence of Buhari, particularly in the North, is still very strong and may not diminish significantly before the 2027 elections.
“Second, because of the politics of zoning and rotational presidency, which is very important to many Nigerians today.
“You may recall that when Buhari was still alive, he made it clear he did not support the coalition of opposition forces against the APC.
“He publicly distanced himself from such efforts, which showed that his loyalty remained with the APC platform that brought him to power.
“That endorsement of continuity with the APC by Buhari still matters to many of his supporters today.”
